II · The Market Turned

You paused at the bottom. Then it turned.

The 'prices collapsed' story explains the death — but in the months after the pause, lithium rebounded, cobalt flipped into deficit, and a wave of federal money opened. The market for what Olokun does is bigger now, and structurally different.

The metals, repriced

Not one market — four, moving in different directions.

Lithium

▲ recovering

Collapsed ~80% through 2024-25, then nearly doubled to ~$26k/t in Q1 2026 as the surplus narrows. Olokun paused near the literal bottom.18,19

Cobalt

▲ structural deficit

The opposite of a collapse: the DRC export ban → ~96,600 t/yr quotas through 2027 flipped cobalt into deficit, metal up ~160-180% off a nine-year low.20,21

Nickel

▼ deep surplus

~288kt projected 2026 surplus, prices near four-year lows. This is exactly why the beachhead leads with cobalt + REEs, not nickel.25

Magnesium

▲ no US supply

The only US primary smelter is bankrupt; near-total import dependence. A real scarcity, backed by a DPA Title III brine-Mg pilot.26

Repriced

Cobalt into deficit, lithium off the floor, nickel in glut — the demand case is now scarcity, not volume.

What's pulling

The durable half is water, not metal.

Mineral revenue is higher-upside but commodity-whipsawed. The water-and-compliance side grows on regulation that doesn't care what lithium costs — and it's where a resin that leaves a stream cleaner has a recurring, defensible fee.

Grid / battery storage

421 GWh shipped in 2025 (+75%), ~600 GWh projected 2026 — now turbocharged by AI-datacenter power, a driver that barely existed when Olokun launched.22,23

EVs

Still the largest battery-metal sink, but decelerating in the US (~-19-28% in 2026 after the credit expired) and softening in China. The bull case now rests on storage.24

Industrial water reuse

A ~$32B market growing ~7.7%/yr on non-cyclical regulation (PFAS, heavy-metal effluent limits, zero-liquid-discharge) — buyers pay regardless of metal prices.27,28

And the money followed

A large non-dilutive federal stack opened after the pause and points straight at recovering critical minerals from waste: DOE's $275M to pilot recovery at industrial sites, $134M for rare earths from waste, DPA Title III, and a permanent IRA 45X production credit.46,47,50 Olokun paused just before the exact tailwind it needed arrived.